Unvaccinated individuals in the U.S. are at significant risk due to the Delta variant, which the World Health Organization (WHO) has identified as B.1.617.2. First discovered in India in October 2020, this variant has now spread to nearly 85 nations, including the United States. U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy indicated in a PBS NewsHour interview that the Delta variant is rapidly proliferating, potentially becoming the leading strain in the country.

How Viruses Adapt and Evolve into More Dangerous Variants

According to Manavi Kapur's report for Quartz India, the Delta variant has critical mutations in its spike protein, including E484Q, L452R, and P614R. These mutations facilitate stronger binding to ACE-2 receptors, allowing the virus to replicate more swiftly and evade the immune response. Vox's YouTube video elaborates on how the coronavirus has mutated into these more virulent strains.

Identifying Symptoms of the Delta Variant Infected individuals often report headaches, sore throats, and runny noses—symptoms that have replaced the classic cough and loss of taste or smell associated with earlier strains.

The Increased Transmission Rate of the Delta Variant Dr. Mike Ryan, WHO's executive director for health emergencies, stated that the Delta variant spreads more effectively among people, particularly targeting those who are unvaccinated and thereby at risk of severe illness or death. Research suggests that Delta is 50-60% more transmissible than the Alpha variant, which itself was already more contagious than the original strain. In simple terms, while someone infected with the original strain might transmit the virus to two others, the Alpha variant could reach four, and the Delta variant could infect seven.

The Lethality of the Delta Variant An analysis by the Associated Press of CDC data from May indicated that fewer than 1,200 out of more than 107,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations involved fully vaccinated individuals, representing only 1.1%. Among over 18,000 COVID-19 fatalities, just about 150 occurred in vaccinated people, or 0.8%. This means that 99.2% of unvaccinated individuals would likely survive if vaccinated.

Effectiveness of Vaccines Against the Delta Variant Recent findings from Public Health England confirm that the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is 96% effective in preventing hospitalization due to Delta after two doses. Moderna's recent study also indicated that its vaccine offers substantial protection against the variant. Johnson & Johnson reported on July 1 that its single-dose vaccine produced a strong neutralizing antibody response to Delta, showing 85% effectiveness. Furthermore, data from PHE showed that two doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine were 92% effective against hospitalization from Delta, with no reported deaths among vaccinated individuals.

Understanding Vaccine Breakthrough Cases A small fraction of vaccinated individuals may still contract COVID-19, termed "vaccine breakthrough cases," as defined by the CDC. This can occur if a person is infected before the vaccine has had enough time to take effect, usually about two weeks after the final dose. A Fox News report highlighted 3,791 cases among more than 3.7 million fully vaccinated individuals in Massachusetts, accounting for just 0.10% of cases. Many of these cases were mild or asymptomatic, as noted by Boston University infectious diseases expert Davidson Hamer. It’s important to remember that no vaccine is 100% effective, especially against emerging variants.

The Delta Variant's Impact on the Unvaccinated CNN reports that the Delta variant will not be uniformly pervasive across the U.S. since at least 20 states, along with Washington D.C., Puerto Rico, and Guam, have met President Biden’s vaccination goal of at least one dose for 70% of the population. Among seniors aged 65 and older, 78.6% are fully vaccinated. Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former FDA commissioner, indicated that the variant's spread will be regionally concentrated.

Dr. Rochelle Walensky, CDC director, noted that as of July 1, nearly 25% of new infections were linked to the Delta variant, which is now present in all 50 states. Some areas, particularly in the southeast and Midwest, have vaccination rates below 30%, leading to infection rates due to Delta as high as 50%. The New York Times’ County and State Tracker can help monitor vaccination progress.

States with low vaccination rates, such as Missouri, Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiana, also report high new case rates. Given the availability of effective vaccines, it's essential to view vaccination as a critical issue of life and death rather than a political one.

Learning from Global Vaccination Trends The U.S. can glean insights from the U.K. regarding potential outbreaks. Despite high vaccination rates, Delta accounted for 90% of infections by mid-June, particularly among unvaccinated young people. The U.S. is currently about one to two months behind the U.K. in its Delta experience.

• United Kingdom: A successful vaccination campaign has seen 49% fully vaccinated and 67% with at least one dose, yet lockdown measures remained in place.
• Israel: With 65% of the population having received at least one dose, Delta outbreaks primarily affected unvaccinated children under 16. The government opted for vaccinations over lockdowns.
• Asia: Countries like Australia, South Korea, Indonesia, and Japan are experiencing surges in Delta cases, with vaccination rates below 12%.
• European Union: With Delta comprising 56% of new cases, Portugal is reinstating curfews amid concerns over slow vaccine rollouts.

Confusion Around Masking Guidelines While the CDC does not mandate masks for fully vaccinated individuals, the WHO recommends continued mask use and social distancing in public spaces. Some areas, such as St. Louis County and City, have reinstated mask mandates, while Los Angeles County advises all residents to wear masks indoors, regardless of vaccination status.

Should Vaccinated Individuals Wear Masks? Virginia Tech expert Prof. Linsey Marr emphasizes the importance of assessing local caseloads and vaccination rates when deciding to wear a mask. Personally, as someone who received two doses of the Pfizer vaccine, I am concerned about the low vaccination rates in my area. With only 47.83% of Ohio residents vaccinated, I observe that many shoppers do not wear masks. I choose to wear a mask in public spaces and when exercising outdoors to protect myself from allergens and potential infections, as my mask has successfully shielded me from illness during the pandemic.