# The Rise of the Asian Century: Is China Set to Overtake the U.S.?
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Chapter 1: Historical Context of Industrial Revolutions
The dawn of the Industrial Revolution in the 18th century, fueled by the invention of the steam engine, marked the British Empire as the world's leading power. This was followed by the Second Industrial Revolution, which introduced significant advancements including railroads, steel production, and electrification. While this era primarily unfolded in the U.K., Germany, and the U.S., Japan also began to emerge as a notable contender.
In 1908, Henry Ford sold his first Model T for $850—equivalent to around $25,000 today. By 1925, thanks to the efficiency of his assembly line, he was able to sell cars for just $260, making them accessible even to his workers. The result was a shift in American mobility, transforming Detroit into a hub of innovation and culture, famously known as the Paris of the West.
The 20th century became known as "The American Century," with the U.S. and Germany ultimately surpassing Great Britain due to their emphasis on technological advancement. After Germany unified in 1870, its per capita income was only 57.6% of the U.K.'s, while the U.S. was at 76.6%. By 1897, American per capita income had overtaken that of the U.K.
The U.S. mirrored what China is currently doing: we began by mimicking British innovations and eventually surpassed them. For instance, Andrew Carnegie adopted the British Bessemer process, leading his company to produce more steel than the entire U.K. by 1900. Similarly, German chemists, starting with basic substances like dyes, transformed their country into a leader in the chemical industry by the 1880s, with companies like Merck and Bayer emerging.
Post-World War II, while Europe and Japan were recovering from devastation, the U.S. solidified its dominance. The Digital Revolution, also known as the Third Industrial Revolution, was led by American ingenuity. Institutions such as Bell Labs and MIT produced groundbreaking technologies including vacuum tubes, transistors, and the internet, revolutionizing the tech landscape.
Innovators like Robert Noyce, Gordon Moore, and Steve Jobs played pivotal roles in transforming the technological world. I remember the early days of computing, from MS-DOS to the first graphical user interfaces. The U.S. was a vibrant hub of innovation, fueled by ambitious projects like the Hoover Dam and the Apollo moon missions.
However, the current trend shows a decline in investment in fundamental research, jeopardizing future advancements. The U.S. that once inspired giants like Nikola Tesla and Werner von Braun is now falling behind in nurturing scientific exploration. Without this foundational investment, we risk losing our leadership position to other nations.
Chapter 2: The Emergence of Asia
The first video titled "Rise of the Asian Century with Kishore Mahbubani" explores the shifting balance of power towards Asia, particularly China, and its implications for global leadership.
As it stands, China accounts for 30% of the world's manufacturing output and is rapidly advancing in artificial intelligence. This technological leap is enabling its factories and ports to achieve unprecedented efficiency. China produces 27 million cars annually, and these are no longer the cheap, inferior products they once were. The modern equivalent of Ford's Model T is anticipated to debut at the Shanghai auto show.
While I can't predict its exact design, I envision it to be electric and energy-efficient, integrating robotics and AI, along with cutting-edge 5G technology for enhanced safety and performance. This vehicle will likely be offered at a fraction of the price of American or European models.
For many in Asia, owning a premium vehicle like a Tesla or a BMW is still a dream. However, affordable options are emerging, such as the Seagull, priced just above $11,000. In recent years, the trajectory for middle-class individuals in Malaysia, China, or India has shifted. Previously, they would start with bicycles or public transport, upgrade to motorbikes, and eventually save for years to purchase a car. Now, with rising incomes and decreasing costs, they can acquire desirable vehicles much sooner, reminiscent of Ford's factory workers purchasing their first cars.
Meanwhile, Chinese ports are optimizing operations using 5G networks, barcodes, and robotics for the automated loading and unloading of ships. Many industries, including mining, are undergoing significant automation. In many respects, China and other Asian nations are replicating what the U.S. and Germany achieved during the Second Industrial Revolution.
The U.S. has been fortunate to benefit from two industrial revolutions, yet it seems to have lost its focus. Other nations, particularly China, remain determined and concentrated on technological advancements. Currently, China boasts thousands of 5G networks in its factories, while the rest of the world lags behind with only a few hundred.
If the U.S. can muster the leadership to confront these challenges head-on, there may still be an opportunity to reclaim a seat at the global table, but the clock is ticking.
The second video, "The Return of Asia in the 21st Century," discusses the resurgence of Asian economies and their growing influence on the global stage.
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