How Geography Drives History

Which factors shape how events unfold?

Sun Tzu’s military treatise, The Art of War, underscores the significance of geography in warfare.

“The natural formation of the country is the soldier’s best ally.” — Sun Tzu

Many overlook how natural landscapes profoundly influence historical events. In the early 19th century, as Shaka Zulu swept through what is now South Africa, the Sotho people retreated to the elevated Thaba Bosiu highlands.

This period is remembered as “difaqane,” a Sesotho term meaning “the great scattering and crushing.” The Thaba Bosiu plateau, characterized by its high sandstone cliffs and expansive visibility, provided a refuge that protected them from Zulu incursions.

The plateau served as a natural fortress, enabling the Sotho to resist Zulu attacks. This geographical choice is evident today, as Lesotho remains an enclave entirely surrounded by South Africa.

Lesotho exemplifies how geography affects historical narratives, a theme explored by Jared Diamond in his work, Guns, Germs, and Steel.

“History followed different courses for different peoples because of differences among peoples’ environments, not because of biological differences among peoples themselves.” — Jared Diamond

In many respects, history is shaped by geographical circumstances. Why did Europe ascend to global prominence while Africa lagged behind?

According to Diamond, the explanation is straightforward: geography.

Europe's west-east orientation contrasts with Africa's north-south layout.

What does this imply?

The climate remains relatively consistent from east to west, facilitating the cultivation of similar crops and livestock. In contrast, the north-south gradient presents significant climatic variability.

This geographical advantage allowed Eurasian societies to build momentum, resulting in larger populations, greater trade, and accelerated development.

Consequently, European and Asian nations were positioned to exert influence over global affairs.

Ancient Geological Influences on History

During the Cretaceous Period, roughly 145 to 66 million years ago, the Earth was dominated by dinosaurs such as Triceratops, Velociraptor, and T-Rex.

At that time, much of what is now the Southeastern United States was submerged under shallow seas. The Gulf of Mexico extended further north and was linked to the Arctic via a narrow sea passage through present-day Midwest America.

The shoreline was situated in central Alabama, in a region now identified as the Black Belt. Kathryn Hansen describes it thus:

“Over millions of years, plankton that lived in the Gulf left behind exoskeletons rich in calcium carbonate — the accumulation of which resulted in the Black Belt’s chalk subsoil. As a result of all the calcium, the soil is very fertile and good for growing crops.”

The term Black Belt derives from the hue of the region's soil, a defining trait that has significantly influenced its history.

When comparing this with the 2020 presidential election results in Alabama by county, one might notice a correlation.

Did you observe anything? If you paid attention, you might have noted that the blue counties, which leaned Democratic, align with the geologic formations dating back to the age of dinosaurs.

Surprising, isn’t it?

The connections may not be readily apparent. Yet, a closer examination reveals how subtle geographical variations can shape human events.

The sedimentary deposits from the ancient sea contributed to the fertile black soil, suitable for cotton cultivation, necessitating the importation of African slaves for labor.

The east-west axis of Eurasia facilitated rapid development, prompting Europeans to voyage to Africa’s western coast for trade. There, they encountered kings eager for firearms and materials like brass, which local artisans transformed into exquisite crafts.

In exchange, these African rulers offered slaves and captives from various conflicts. These individuals were then transported under horrific conditions to the Americas.

Many settled on the cotton plantations of the Black Belt, leading to a population increase. Today, the descendants of those enslaved individuals constitute a significant portion of the local demographic.

In contemporary American elections, African-Americans predominantly support the Democratic Party, hence the blue counties.

Who would have imagined?

All of this partially stems from geographical peculiarities.

Macro and Micro Scale Influences

This illustrates how extensive macro-scale factors can influence events at the micro-scale, creating intricate cause-and-effect relationships that yield intriguing phenomena.

Why does one person identify as Christian while another identifies as Muslim? The answer is straightforward: geography. If you’re born in Italy, you’re likely to be Christian; if in Tunisia, likely Muslim.

Geography plays a substantial role here. Ancient geological forces shaped the Earth, positioning the Eurasian landmass predominantly in the northern hemisphere.

The Mediterranean Sea eventually emerged, isolating Europe (Italy) from Africa (Tunisia). In the 7th century, Arab-Muslim tribes expanded through North Africa, conquering and converting the populace over time.

They crossed the sea, establishing Muslim dominions in the Iberian Peninsula and Sicily. However, as time passed, their separation from other Muslim territories due to the Mediterranean led to their expulsion by Christian forces.

The Reconquista was successful in regions like Spain but faltered elsewhere. The Mediterranean, which aided Christians in Europe, acted as a barrier to incursions into North Africa, creating a divide between a Christian Europe and a Muslim North Africa.

Thus, geography elucidates why Italians are predominantly Christian while Tunisians are primarily Muslim.

Geography as a Probabilistic Factor

While geography offers substantial explanatory power, it is not the sole determinant. As a wise individual once stated, “The map is not the territory.” — Alfred Korzybski

Maps provide helpful illustrations but don’t encompass the entirety of historical explanation. Geography influences events but is merely one piece of a larger puzzle. It can steer circumstances in a certain direction but does not always dictate outcomes.

Geography functions not as a deterministic force but rather as a probabilistic one. Certain geographical conditions enhance particular probabilities, and as situations develop, geography can further entrench them.

Arab-Muslim tribes were not fated to conquer North Africa, which at the time was predominantly Christian. However, once established in the region, geographical factors fortified their position, making it nearly impossible for Christian Europeans across the sea to displace them, as they had done in Spain.

That said, it is crucial not to overstate the influence of geography. Other factors are also at play.

History unfolds as a complex interplay between geography, culture, and human nature. Individual ambitions can significantly impact outcomes.

Had it not been for Putin’s ambition to emulate a 17th-century Russian tsar, the invasion of Ukraine would likely not have occurred, despite the various geopolitical theories.

Nonetheless, disentangling the specific influences on events is challenging, as geography, culture, and human nature continuously interact in a web of feedback loops.

Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson, in their book Why Nations Fail, illustrate how positive feedback loops contribute to the establishment of effective institutions:

“Rich nations are rich largely because they managed to develop inclusive institutions at some point during the past three hundred years. These institutions have persisted through a process of virtuous circles.”

Institutions are integral to a region's culture, shaped by the behaviors and traditions of its inhabitants.

However, their evolution is also influenced by geography to some extent. Stephen Haber, in his paper, articulated how this relationship manifests:

“Climate and geography operated on long-run economic development indirectly, by generating pressures and tensions that gave rise to different forms of social organization around the planet.”

In essence, under specific climatic and geographical conditions, diverse groups made distinct choices regarding social organization, leading to varied societal structures, moral systems, and power distributions.

“The result of countless agents making decisions over hundreds of years under the hard constraints imposed by nature yielded very different legal systems, stocks of human capital, social structures, lifeways, moral systems, and distributions of power.”

Yet, we must not assume that everything is predetermined. A mountain range, formed millions of years ago, might influence a community's way of life, but that doesn’t imply they are incapable of change.

Society is shaped equally by choice and geography, especially in today’s world. After all, North and South Korea share the same geographical landscape, yet their developmental trajectories are drastically different.

While geography is a significant force in historical development, culture and human nature also play crucial roles. In certain contexts, they can even alter the course initially set by environmental factors.