A Compelling Argument for Longtermism: Shifting Perspectives
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Chapter 1: Introduction to Longtermism
Do you ever find yourself feeling overwhelmed by a dismal view of the future? It’s easy to get caught up in the negativity surrounding pressing issues such as climate change, nuclear threats, resource depletion, AI risks, and social inequalities. However, there is a beacon of hope amidst this gloom, and it lies in the concept of Longtermism.
Longtermism represents a philosophical stance that emphasizes actions we can take today to enhance the survival and quality of life for future generations. In this discussion, I will draw insights from two significant books: What We Owe the Future by William MacAskill and How to Avoid a Climate Disaster: The Solutions We Have and The Breakthroughs We Need by Bill Gates.
While it’s impractical to delve deeply into every concern raised earlier, I can share some tools and examples that can aid in reframing our perspectives. Let’s remember that humanity has shown remarkable resilience throughout history.
Humanity's Resilience
History demonstrates that humanity can endure events that seem catastrophic. Here are a few illustrations:
- Despite being the deadliest conflict ever, World War II did not result in a declining global population.
- The fall of the Roman Empire led to a temporary decline in living standards, yet centuries later, the Renaissance revived many lost Roman technologies, paving the way for the Industrial Revolution.
- The Black Death, which decimated around 10% of the population, did not hinder economic or technological advancements; recovery came in just two centuries.
- Following the devastation of Hiroshima, the city saw a remarkable recovery—30% of its power was restored within 30 days, and within a decade, its population returned to pre-bombing levels.
These examples illustrate our capacity to adapt and recover.
Improvements in Our World
It’s easy to fall into the trap of believing that progress is stagnant. However, this view is largely misguided. Consider the following advancements in two critical areas:
Climate Change
While addressing climate change poses significant challenges, there are positive trends worth noting. For instance, the cost of solar energy has decreased by 250 times since 1976, and lithium batteries have become 41 times cheaper since 1991. Moreover, countries with considerable wealth have seen their per capita emissions decline since 1990.
Wealth Distribution
Although discussions around wealth inequality often raise alarm, historical data indicates that income disparities have improved globally since 1800. Most people now live above the poverty line, signifying a shift towards greater economic equity.
Despite these encouraging developments, we cannot afford to become complacent. Challenges remain, particularly regarding emerging technologies like AI.
Staying Engaged: How You Can Make a Difference
Feeling empowered to contribute to a better future is crucial. Here are some actionable steps you can take:
Connect with Organizations
Seek out groups that align with your interests. For example:
- Clean Air Task Force: Accelerates the adoption of renewable energy.
- Center for Effective Altruism: Promotes discussions on Longtermism and future priorities.
- Center for AI Safety: Advocates for higher safety standards in AI.
Support Their Work
Consider applying for positions, donating, or simply sharing their initiatives on social media.
A donation of $1000 annually to the Clean Air Task Force can mitigate up to 1000 tonnes of CO2 emissions, far surpassing the impact of individual lifestyle changes.
Final Thoughts and Inspirational Quotes
While it’s vital to remain optimistic, we must also stay vigilant about the challenges we face. As we aim for a better future, I leave you with two poignant quotes:
> “Meaning happens when that dance has become so intense that all the horrors of the past, all the terrible struggle engaged in by all of life and all of humanity to that moment becomes necessary and worthwhile part of the increasingly successful attempt to build something truly Mighty and Good.”
> — Jordan B. Peterson
> “The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.”
> — Edmund Burke
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Chapter 2: Further Exploration of Longtermism
In this video, The Case for Effective Altruism, the discussion delves into how we can effectively contribute to the greater good through thoughtful actions.
In the video Professor William MacAskill: How to do the most good possible!, insights are shared on maximizing our impact in the world.